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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Ahmadi-Nejad backs aide over Israel

Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran’s president, defied politicians and senior clergy on Thursday by backing remarks made by one of his closest aides over friendship with the Israeli people.

Although Mr Ahmadi-Nejad is more used to attacking Israel and predicting its demise, he defended Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, the vice-president for tourism, against calls to sack him for saying Iran was “a friend of [the] Israeli people”.

The president on Thursday made the first public defence of Mr Mashaei, saying his government was, in any case, acting independently of the Qom-based senior clergy.

While reiterating that the Israeli government was “illegitimate”, he said Iran’s policy was friendship with the Israeli people, who had been used as “human shields” for the regime’s “atrocities”.

Iran’s government faces mounting pressure at home for spiralling inflation and abroad because of its refusal to abide by United Nations resolutions to suspend its uranium enrichment programme.

Some analysts say the Israeli remarks are Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s way of soothing tensions with the west, particularly as Iran continues to defy the international community over its nuclear programme. He dismissed the threat of a new round of sanctions after the International Atomic Energy Agency this week criticised Iranian co-operation.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad made the comments ahead of his trip to New York to attend the UN General Assembly.

Despite his radicalism and defiant attitude, the Iranian president would, analysts say, like to be the first Iranian leader to make significant contact with the US after decades of enmity.

“Mr Ahmadi-Nejad seemingly thinks the route to Washington goes through Tel Aviv, which has made his government raise the issue of friendship with the Israeli people,” said Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, a former vice-president. “But he would be allowed by higher authorities [Ayatollah Kham enei] to go only as far as nothing significant happens between Iran and the US.”

Ahmadinejad loses favor with Khamenei, Iran's top leader

 A rift is emerging between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggesting that the president no longer enjoys the full backing of Khamenei, as he did in the years after his election in 2005.

In the past, when Ahmadinejad was attacked by political opponents, the criticisms were usually silenced by Khamenei, who has the final word on state matters and who regularly endorsed the president in public speeches. But that public support has been conspicuously absent in recent months.

There are numerous possible reasons for Ahmadinejad's loss of support, but analysts here all point to one overriding factor: the U.S. National Intelligence Report last month, which said that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 in response to international pressure. The report sharply decreased the threat of a military strike against Iran, allowing the authorities to focus on domestic issues, with important parliamentary elections looming in March.

"Now that Iran is not under the threat of a military attack, all contradictions within the establishment are surfacing," said Saeed Leylaz, an economic and political analyst. "The biggest mistake that Americans have constantly made toward Iran was adopting radical approaches, which provided the ground for radicals in the country to take control."

Iran had been under increasing international pressure for its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program, which could be pursued for either peaceful or military purposes. In separate speeches last year, American and French officials did not rule out military attack against Iran if it continued its defiance. Those threats have stopped since the National Intelligence Report was released.

While the pressure was on, the leadership was reluctant to let any internal disagreements show. Senior officials, including Khamenei, constantly called for unity and warned that the enemy, a common reference to the United States, could take advantage of such differences.

The Iranian presidency is a largely ceremonial post. But Ahmadinejad used the office as a bully pulpit, espousing an economic populism that built a strong following among the middle and lower classes and made him a political force to be reckoned with. That popularity won him the strong backing of the supreme leader.

But the relationship began to sour even before the National Intelligence Report was released. A source close to Khamenei, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, said Khamenei had been especially disappointed by Ahmadinejad's economic performance, which had led to steep inflation in basic necessities, from food to property values.

"Mr. Khamenei supported Mr. Ahmadinejad because he believed in his slogans of helping the poor," the source said. "But his economic performance has been disastrous. Their honeymoon is certainly over."

Economists have long criticized Ahmadinejad's economic policies, warning that his reliance on oil revenues to finance loans to the poor and to buy cheap imports would lead to inflation and cripple local industries. Inflation has risen from 12 percent in October 2006 to 19 percent this year, according to figures released by the Iranian Central Bank.

Khamenei said Thursday in a speech in the central city of Yazd that "the government has certain unique characteristics, but like any other government there are mistakes and shortcomings."

He added that continuous criticism could undermine the government, but he refrained from praising it as he had in the past.

Recently, the supreme leader appointed a hard-line military leader, Mohammad Zolghadr, as deputy head of the armed forces for Basij, which is a volunteer militia force.

Ahmadinejad dismissed Zolghadr last month as deputy interior minister for security affairs. Ahmadinejad appeared angered last week by interference from Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, who visited Egypt as Khamenei's representative at the Supreme National Security Council. Ahmadinejad said Wednesday that his government had a Foreign Ministry that determined the country's foreign policy, and a ministry spokesman said that Larijani's trip had been personal.

Larijani's trip was important because Tehran cut ties with Egypt, a major Sunni country, when Cairo signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1979 and provided asylum for the deposed Shah of Iran. Larijani, who is a close aide to Khamenei, announced that his talks with the Egyptian authorities had gone well.

In the face of rising criticism, Ahmadinejad has for the first time acknowledged that Iran was suffering from rising prices. Previously, he had called inflation a fiction invented by his political enemies.

But he blamed previous governments, Parliament and what he called a 36-percent increase in the prices of goods in international markets.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Ali Larijani gives stern warning to West over Iran's nuclear ambitions

Iran's new parliamentary Speaker has used his inaugural address to give warning that Tehran could set limits on future co-operation with the UN's nuclear watchdog, after an unusually critical report from the agency. Ali Larijani's stern message, delivered only moments after he was voted overwhelmingly into the powerful new post yesterday, signalled his intention to adopt a tough stance on the nuclear issue.

Diplomats were hoping for a less confrontational tone from the former nuclear negotiator for Iran, who is seen as the main challenger to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the hardline President of the country. Mr Larijani fell out with him last year about how to handle the nuclear row with the West.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a report on Monday saying that Iran's alleged research into nuclear warheads remained a matter of serious concern and Tehran should provide more information on it. The report marked a more robust line from the IAEA, which has conducted four years of investigations into the nuclear programme of Tehran but has never drawn a conclusion over its nature. Western powers called for more pressure on Iran, which has been hit by three rounds of UN sanctions for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment programmes.

When he addressed parliament, Mr Larijani accused the IAEA of sharing information about Iran's nuclear file with critics of Tehran in the UN Security Council. “If they continue along this path, the new parliament will intervene in the case and set a new line for co-operation with the IAEA. If they want a more sincere co-operation with Iran they need to have more balanced reports and not look to create a media frenzy,” said Mr Larijani, whose remarks drew chants of “God is great” and “Death to America”.

The performance will be studied closely by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, the so-called P5+1, who are preparing to offer Iran a package of incentives to give up its uranium enrichment programme.

Mr Larijani, viewed by some as a pragmatic hardliner with whom the West could perhaps engage in dialogue, is expected to run against Mr Ahmadinejad in presidential elections next year. The differences between the men on the nuclear issue may well be more a matter of style than substance.

“Larijani's got a certain pragmatic streak but he's not a moderate. He'll want to appear tough and he'll try to present himself as not being Ahmadinejad,” Ali Ansari, a professor in Iranian history at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, said.

Mr Larijani is expected to challenge the President on the economy. Mr Ahmadinejad pledged to give the poor a fairer share of oil wealth, but inflation is above 20 per cent and there is high unemployment.