Tuesday, October 28, 2008
America's Secret War
Monday, October 27, 2008
Changing the Conventional Wisdom About Iran
Both U.S. presidential candidates agree that Iran must be stopped from acquiring nuclear-weapons capability, and their preferred option for doing so is diplomacy — by which they mean sanctions. Even though John McCain is more inclined to keep a military option "on the table," the U.S. military establishment has made clear that attacking Iran is the proverbial "bridge too far", whose consequences would pose an unacceptable risk to U.S. interests. The problem is that the current diplomatic effort is going nowhere.The failure of punitive diplomacy and prohibitive consequences of military action have prompted a growing number of experts in France, a key U.S. ally on the Iran issue, to argue for an entirely new approach, based on a diplomatic approach that treats Iran less like pariah, and more like a partner.
"The opportunity is there to move past the 30 year-old images of a defiant and frightening revolutionary Iran, and start encouraging cooperative behavior by engaging with Iran as the swiftly-developing nation and regional power it is," says Bernard Hourcade, an Iran specialist at France's National Center for Scientific Research. "The key is direct American involvement in relations, because renewed ties with the U.S. is what Iran wants most."
"Iran's biggest strategic concern is obtaining security assurances and accords, and the only nation that can provide those is the U.S." says Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute on International and Strategic Relations in Paris. The logic behind that view is supported by Thomas Fringar, chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council and the senior analyst in Washington's intelligence community. In a recent preview of his council's Global Trends 2025 report, Fringar noted that Iran's leaders will eventually decide on whether to build nuclear weapons based on their assessment of their security environment."The United States took care of Iran's principal security threats [Saddam Hussein and the Taliban]," he said, "except for us, which the Iranians consider a mortal threat."
Part of the reason for the current standoff, says Hourcade, is that in order to keep thecapacity to build nuclear weapons out of Iran's hands, the West is offering Tehran incentives to forego certain activities — such as uranium enrichment — that it is legally allowed to pursue under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. "The flaw with the carrot and stick approach is that Iran's leaders — backed by wide consensus in Iranian society — view as a sovereign right the development of a civil nuclear program as they see fit, meaning any carrots designed as a swap for that are regarded as illegitimate as the disuasive sticks," Hourcade says. "Each side has come to see denying the other what it's after as both a matter of pride as well as geo-strategic importance," agrees Billion. "The vital issue of nuclear development and use has been overwhelmed by the wider, habitual jousting between Iran and the West."
The thinking in Washington may also be changing, however. Although McCain dismisses as "dangerous" and "naive" Barack Obama's promises "to engage in tough, direct diplomacy with Iran," momentum for direct diplomacy with Teheran is gaining on both sides of the partisan divide. Even former Republican Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger, James Baker and Colin Powell have urged expanding direct contacts between the two nations, and the Bush Administration last July sent U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs William Burns sat down with diplomats from Iran and Europe to discuss the nuclear stand-off. Regardless of campaign-trail rhetoric, the need to talk directly to Tehran is fast becoming bipartisan conventional wisdom in the U.S. foreign policy establishment.
The obstacles are considerable, of course, given Iran's reputation as a regional troublemaker via its proxies in Lebanon and Iraq, and also in light of its support for Palestinian radical groups. But those who advocate for a new diplomatic strategy argue that it is precisely Iran's capacity to make life difficult for the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East that makes so urgent the pursuit of a new framework of engagement in which to manage a very dangerous conflict. Like the U.S. National Intelligence Council's Fringar, they differentiate between Iran pursuing the capacityto build a bomb, and taking the decision to actually build one — which, they say, hasn't yet happened. Dissuading Iran from going that route requires a new American relationship with Teheran, the French analysts argue.
"Iran doesn't need an actual nuclear bomb for deterrence if its security can be ensured in other ways — like through accords with the U.S." Hourcade says. "Meanwhile, Germany and Japan have the capacity to build a bomb within three months and that bothers no one. The idea is get Iran to evolve towards behavior where its possession of materials and knowledge to build a bomb is viewed as equally improbable of those being used to actually construct one."
Besides, says Billion, there may actually be more dangerous threats out there than the one presented by Iran developing a nuclear energy program that could potentially be used to create a weapon. "Though we'd all like to see Iran's political structure far more open, free, and pluralistic, even its fiercest opponents won't accuse Iran of being unstable and chaotic," Billion notes. "Now compare that to our ally Pakistan, whose construction of a nuclear bomb didn't provoke anywhere near the alarm. Or at least didn't back then."
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Former Iranian Officer Explains the Games Mullahs Play
One must never forget that the Islamic government of Iran is being run by hard-line clerics. The games they play with new faces and voices, or good cop/bad cop, are an ongoing show designed to keep the West confused and falsely hopeful enough that one day there will be a diplomatic breakthrough.
It is with this mindset that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, continually works to create a wedge between the American people and their politicians by giving out mixed signals, creating a false hope for a negotiated settlement over the enrichment process and U.S.-Iranian relations.
I know. Using techniques taught to me by the CIA and with my code name Wally, from a front-row seat in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, I compiled my reports on Iranian deception in the middle of the night, knowing that capture would bring torture and a horrible death for myself and my family, but my hope was that I could be of some help to free Iran from the mullahs and their network of terror.
The city of Qom, located southwest of Tehran, is one of the most important centers of theology to Shia Islam; it is from these theological seminaries that the country is run. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a member of the Assembly of Experts (the body that chooses the supreme leader) and the advisor to President Ahmadinejad, runs the Haghani School that teaches the most radical Shiite beliefs, including the belief in the imminent coming of the 12th Imam who is called “Mahdi.”
The teachers and students of this school run some of the most important political and security institutions in the Iranian government, including the Ministry of Intelligence. Every minister has been associated with the Haghani School and involved in organizing death squads to kill the opposition and coordinating terrorist activities against the West. Ayatollah Janati, the powerful chairman of the Guardian Council, is also associated with that school.
Their deceptions work in many ways. One example was in July 1987 when the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, the Hajj, was in progress. Khomeini sent a public message for the pilgrims to avoid any kind of clash and to keep the peace. But my source in the intelligence unit of the Guards informed me earlier that Imam Khomeini had actually ordered an armed uprising in Saudi Arabia during the Hajj.
Many members of the Guards, Basijis, and thugs with weapons such as knives and machetes were sent disguised as ordinary pilgrims by Iran Air. The plan was to start a demonstration using slogans against Israel and America, encourage other Muslims to join the demonstration, and then incite an uprising against the Saudi monarchy. I immediately reported the details to the CIA. Not long after that, the Saudis started checking the flights arriving in Saudi Arabia from Iran and many pilgrims were sent back after the discovery of weapons on board. The Iranian regime went ahead with its plan and started the demonstration during the pilgrimage. However, the Saudi police were ready for them and at the end of the day hundreds died and more were wounded. The mullahs, angry about the interference with their planned demonstration at the pilgrimage, ordered a number of bomb attacks on Saudi agencies in and out of the country, along with the assassinations of Saudi diplomats in retaliation for the pilgrims’ deaths.
I also informed the CIA of my findings that an Iranian consulate convoy transferred arms and explosives, via an Iran Air flight, to the Iranian consulate in Dubai. Because it was a diplomatic convoy, they were not searched. This took place while the Iranian envoy in Dubai was relaying messages of friendship and cooperation to the government of Dubai.
All the while the mullahs have been supported by the Russians and the Chinese. I reported to the CIA that the Russians were selling arms to the Guards and training the new intelligence apparatus in the Islamic Republic of Iran, while also reporting that the Chinese were selling Silkworm missiles and artillery, and training the Revolutionary Guards’ naval units in a base in China.
The mullahs have always maintained a dual-strategy policy; one is to be prepared for any confrontation, and the other is to drag out negotiations with the West over their development of nuclear capabilities. Their goal is to outlast the Bush administration while pursuing the expansion of their missile delivery system for ballistic missiles and the enrichment process for the ultimate goal of obtaining a nuclear bomb. And the intention behind going nuclear is no less than destroying America and Israel’s power in the region — and beyond — with the belief that Islam will eventually conquer and rule the world.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Ex-President Back in Spotlight in Iran, as He Wins Leadership of Council
In another sign of growing domestic discontent with Iran’s increasingly radical policies, a former president long sidelined by the supreme leader narrowly won election to head a government council called the Assembly of Experts.
US seeks Swiss help on student held in Tehran: State Dept.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Esha Momeni, CSUN Graduate Student Held in Iranian Prison
Ms. Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani is once more apprehended and jailed
Ms Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani has in advance to the latest apprehension, been arrested on two prior occasions. Back in January 2001, as a part of a group with protest permits, she was arrested while protesting outside of the office of the emissary of the United Nations in Tehran; she was released after two months incarceration. In January 2002 on the causes of her numerous activities, she was arrested yet again and was released first after three months.
In recent times, Ms Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani was abducted by the security forces on the 5th of October and was relocated to the ill-famed, 209 section of Evin Prison in Tehran. Section 209 is known by most for its political prisoners (Islamic government of Iran denies having any). It is run by Iran’s various security services, e.g. The Intelligence agency and it houses prisoners who have somehow fallen afoul of some branch of Iran’s government or its religious authorities. To anyone but the Iranian government, they would be known as political prisoners. Inmates face cruel conditions, including a form of solitary confinement known as the “white torture” (the lights of the windowless, empty cell are constantly left on, for months at a time). Iran’s “non-existing” political prisoners have worked hard towards Political freedom, equality for women and Human rights.
Ms Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani had undergone a heart blood vessel surgery less than a month before her imprisonment and is still convalescing from that. Adjacent to that she also has asthma and should be under strict specialist observation. Even before her last arrestment she was in a bad physical shape. The authorities have not yet disclosed a reason behind Ms Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani’s arrest.
She was born on 16th of December 1973 in Sanandaj and holds a BA in Literature from the free university of Sanandaj and a MA in Journalistic from the University of Alame Tabayi
Amongst Ms Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani numerous activities, these are significant for mentioning; she is a renowned human rights activist, a journalist. She is the former president of Cultural and Social Association of Women of Azarmehr in Kurdistan, as well as a women’s rights activist and a key figure in the One million signature campaign. She has done several researches on the problems of Kurdish women, especially female circumcision and women whom set themselves on fire. She was also on the verge of publishing a book in relations to the movement of Kurdish women, before her incarceration. Regarding her journalistic activities, it’s worth mentioning her close co-operation with a weekly magazine named “Rasan” that specialized on Kurdish women.
Ms Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani was also amongst the brave ones whom on a solid basis reported about the horrid situation in Iran to various international media and was amongst others interviewed by Radio Farda and Voice Of America. She told of the women’s situation, the one million signature movement and the human right situation in Kurdistan.
Ms Negin Sheikh Al-Eslami Vatani was a member of human rights association of Kurdistan, she collaborated widely with the majority of human right activists in Iran, individually she reported on the state of affairs in Kurdistan.
Links to her previous works has been attached below:
http://www.radiofarda.com/Article/2008/06/16/f3_women_circumcision.html
http://irwomen.net/spip.php?article4738
http://irwomen.net/spip.php?article4738
http://www.khabarnameh.se/31/38.html
By the agreement of Ms. Negin Sheikh Al-aslami Vatani’s family, some more of her material, articles, research and interviews will be made available.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Iran's Khamenei labels Bush 'mad'